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The 2010 off-season is in full swing, with the NFL Draft now less than a month away. Free agency has been a bit of a snoozer this year with so many potential free agents being restricted without a collective bargaining agreement in place.
And the New England Patriots are off to their typical slow start during this period. This is not a bad thing, as the Patriots have been spending their time and money retaining players that they need back for the 2010 season.
While it is still too early to tell what the 2010 Patriots are going to look like, here is a position by position look at the current team. We will re-visit this topic as off-season moves warrant attention.
Quarterback (Grade: A)
The success of the Patriots starts at quarterback. Tom Brady is back and is looking more and more like the player that led this team to three Lombardi trophies. Brian Hoyer is the backup who saw limited work last year and Jeff Rowe is on the roster as well. Brady and Hoyer will likely be the two QBs that the Pats keep on the active roster this season.
Running Backs (Grade: C+)
I truly expect there to be some change to this group by September. Laurence Maroney is still on the roster but seems to have lost the confidence of Belichick and the staff. He has the potential to be a solid back, but injuries and ball handling problems promise to bring his run in New England to a premature end. Both Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor are capable of taking over any given game, but age and injuries make this an unreliable hope. Kevin Faulk is back for another season as the team’s all-purpose player, but he is not a back that can carry a heavy load. Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis has shown flashes but seems to have yet to impress the coaching staff. Eric Kettani is the lone fullback on the roster.
Based on the production of this group, their age, and continual injury problems, it does seem time to move ahead with making the running back position a priority through the draft. I would also love to see the Pats make a run for Jets’ restricted free agent Leon Washington, but rather doubt they will be willing to part with one of their three second-round choices.
Wide Receivers (Grade: B)
Randy Moss remains an elite and productive receiver, even if his best years are behind him. Wes Welker is hurt and may miss half the season, leaving a gaping hole in the receiver corps. Julian Edelman showed he is a part of the Patriots’ future last season, and even if he can’t be as productive as Welker, he promises to be an important part of the Patriots’ passing game this season. Matthew Slater and Sam Aiken have both been productive contributors, but it doesn’t look like either is the answer for a third or fourth receiver, and David Patten’s resigning isn’t likely to answer this question either. The wildcard on this roster is Brandon Tate, whom the Patriots seem to have very high hopes for. His emergence could go a long way to bridging the gap until Welker’s return. While the Patriots also have a number of other players at this position, look for them to take a receiver through in the draft as well.
Tight Ends (Grade: C)
Gone are Ben Watson and Chris Baker, the two primary starters from last season. The Patriots seem to be continuing their pattern of drafting in TEs and then becoming disenchanted with them over time. Alge Crumpler has been signed and is the perfect blocking end to play in the Patriots’ scheme, and this might have a very good impact on the Pats’ running game this year. But there is presently no receiving threat (other TEs are Robbie Agnone and Rob Myers), so be looking for the Patriots to add through the draft here as well.
Offensive Line (Grade: B+)
Matt Light, Seastian Vollmer and Nick Kaczur return as the primary tackles, and my guess is that Kaczur will find himself in the backup role this year. Vollmer is the future at left tackle, but that move doesn’t look likely until 2011, so look for Light at LT and Vollmer on the right side.
Logan Mankins and Stephen Neal return to starting guard positions, though this could be impacted by the Pats’ ability to get a long-term deal done with Mankins. Dan Koppen returns at center, though he is the least effective of the Patriots’ starting unit. No doubt the Pats will continue to shift the parts around, always valuing versatility in the linemen, and no doubt the pats will use at least one of their dozen draft picks to continue adding depth to the line. There may well be some wholesale change prior to 2011, but this group is more than capable of carrying the load for New England this season.
Defensive Line (Grade: B)
Other than quarterback, this set of players will likely have more impact on the Patriots’ accomplishments in the 20120 season than any other. The trouble is that only two-thirds of this starting group is in place. This position needs to be an A (or A- at worst) for the Patriots to contend for another title.
Vince Wilfork is now locked up in a long-term deal, which instantly makes Patriots’ fans feel good about the interior of the line. Wilfork routinely requires double-teaming and still makes plays, but more importantly frees up other defenders to make plays as well. Ty Warren is back after another productive season, but the line is less set on the other side. With Jarvis Green and Richard Seymour both elsewhere, there is no clear answer opposite of Warren. In truth I expect that the Patriots are hoping to draft a starter into this role with one of their first two of three picks, so the draft will be important to watch.
Mike Wright, Ron Brace and Myron Pryor all provide line depth and versatility.
The Patriots have yet to decide whether or not to bring back Derrick Burgess, but Burgess would likely play as an outside linebacker rather than at end.
Linebacker (Grade: C+)
With the departures of Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel and Junior Seau, this group remains in flux. Seau is definitely gone for good this time, and by the start of the season Adalius Thomas is expected by many people to be wearing Jets’ green. This is a set of positions where the Pats need for their younger players to step up, and to add quality and depth through the draft.
The Patriots’ draft history here is problematic. While Jerod Mayo is an example of how the Patriots can successfully draft immediate impact to the position, they also tend to have exceedingly high expectations of linebackers in the draft, which has led to the Patriots passing on linebackers who are flourishing with other teams right now. The Patriots need to get depth and consistency at these positions in order to be able to make a run at another title.
Jerod Mayo is the marquis player in this group, and is looking to step up as a locker room presence as well. Gary Guyton and Tyrone McKenzie may well compete for the other inside position, though versatility has always been expected in this group.
The outside positions currently belong to Tully Banta-Cain (who re-upped after a terrific 2009 season) and Adalius Thomas, though Thomas has likely played his last game in Patriot blue. He proved to be a malcontent – never a good thing on a Bill Belichick team, so he will likely be long gone come September. With Thomas’ impending departure, no one else on the roster (Shawn Crable, Pierre Woods, Eric Alexander, Ron Ninkovich, etc.) appears to be a lock to step in, though I would suspect Ninkovich to have a decent shot to see additional playing time.
Defensive Back (Grade: B)
The resigning of Leigh Bodden was an important move by the Patriots’, allowing time for the continued development of Darius Butler, Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite at corner. Shawn Springs returns for another year as well. The Pats are in good shape at the safety positions, where Brandon Meriweather, James Sanders, Brandon McGowan and Pat Chung all promise to be positive contributors. As with most defensive backfields however, they will be as successful as the pressure brought by the front seven will allow… the key to the Patriots’ defense is the pass rush, and they are in need of immediate help in this area.
Special Teams (Grade: B)
Stephen Gostkowski is one of the best kickers in the business. He is a restricted free agent this year, and might well be franchised next year if he and the team can’t secure a long-term deal. But there is no question about Ghost’s productivity. Chris Hanson is not currently on the roster, but may return as the punter, though the Patriots may be well served to look to move on sooner rather than later. Jake Ingram worked out well last year as the long snapper.
Coaching (Grade: A-)
Bill Belichick is one of the premier minds in football. Questions have risen this offseason about the distribution of workload without having either offensive or defensive coordinators. The best approach to take in this case is to assume that Coach Belichick knows what he is doing… he has been with this organization a long time and knows the people on staff very well. No matter what the titles, everyone will know their roles, and the coaching staff will be ready for the 2010 season.
Are they better? We will see. At this point, in a franchise where anything short of a Super Bowl win is perceived as a lack of success, the bar is high. At the very least they need to exceed last year’s humiliating first round loss at the hands of the Ravens. We still have a lot of off-season to go, restricted free agents to resolve, free agents to add, and a draft to hold. Right now the team looks good enough to win a very competitive division and advance in the playoffs, but doesn’t look quite ready to be a team to compete for a Super Bowl title. We’ll see how that changes over the next few months.
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