Quick Slants for November 6, 2008

November 6, 2008 — Rick

So I actually went to bed at 9:30 last night and slept for nine straight hours. I am feeling a lot better after having stayed up so late on election night, and then feeling like a zombie for most of yesterday, and an emotional zombie at that. The enormity of what has been achieved is still not lost on me, but now I am starting to focus on the implementation, and how Obama is going to establish his administration. While he has the advantage of good will from much of America, I don’t see a honeymoon for him… he actually needs to begin governing now to whatever degree he can, in order to hit the ground running on January 20th.

Here’s what we have on tap today:

Joe the Moron benefited from “socialism”

Just watch this clip. It’s pretty clear that Joe doesn’t think very deeply, but during the interview it gets brought up that he was once on welfare. Isn’t that socialism, Joe? Isn’t that redistribution? He justifies it by saying he paid into the system. I wish they would have asked him about the Earned Income Tax Credit, created by Reagan. This knucklehead needs to go away, already. Doesn’t Sarah Palin have a job he can do in Alaska?

What goes around…

Joe Lieberman is about to get his come-uppance, as Harry Reid is about to strip him of his committee chair position. I think it’s time for Joe to go join the Republicans. Buh-bye, Joe.

First Assignments

Late-breaking news is that Representative Rahm Emanuel has agreed to be Barack Obama’s Chief of Staff. Personally, I think this is a great move. He has experience from the Clinton administration and understands Congress very well. He is also the prefect “bad cop” to balance off of the “good cop” that Obama wants to be. I am glad he accepted.

Unfortunately, and predictably, John Boehner immediately ripped the choice. I would suggest that John tend to his own house and stfu (that is NOT a misspelling).

Another beautiful move is the appointment of Robert Gibbs as White House Press Secretary. You may remember Gibbs as the guy who carved up Sean Hannity on Fixed Noise one night. This guy is well spoken and a shrewd thinker. He also carries excellent credibility with the press (Fixed Noise notwithstanding) and will be an asset to the administration.

Finally, Obama is considering the establishment of a new Energy Security Council. This is a terrific idea, as he needs to immediately get to work on solving the issue of our dependency on foreign oil. It is smart to make this a central issue, as it is relatively nonpartisan and will aid Obama in generating political capital for use on more partisan matters later.

GOP in flux

So the Repugs start meeting tomorrow in an effort to re-establish, and potentially reinvent their party. This should be an interesting process to watch. Will they go even further to the right? Will they turn back to the failed and discredited idea of trickle-down economics? Will they move back to the center and be productive in conversations about how to help Obama fix our nation? Or will the party break in two, with one half staying staunchly to the right while a new, more moderate party is formed from the ashes?

I sincerely doubt the last two options. I think it is more likely they will try to reinvent themselves through some interpretation of what Ronald Reagan stood for. I think it is equally possible that the party will stay to the far right and simply be irrelevant in American politics for the foreseeable future. If they were smart, they would moderate themselves; this nation needs at least two stable parties to keep a sense of accountability to the people. I would prefer three to four parties. The Green Party is in the beginnings of establishing themselves for the future, but they need to be viewed as something more than a liberal alternative. That’s why I think another party forming from the ashes of the Republicans would be a good thing, but I am not holding my breath waiting.

In the meantime, the Republicans will engage in a massive internal battle of individuals seeking to become the head of the party. In the meantime, some Republicans are beginning to realize that their traditional moderate base is now turning more and more to the Democrats: suburbia, youth and Latinos are establishing the Democrats as the dominant force in our nation.

There is some thought that the Republicans may use whatever force they have to try to bring Obama down and make him look like Jimmy carter. There is also hope on their part that he will simply govern like Carter. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for that if I was a Republican. Obama is too smart and too well studied for that. he knows the mistakes of the Carter administration and has been actively engaged in conversations with Bill Clinton about the mistakes that Clinton made in putting a Cabinet together. Obama is disciplined and smart, and I truly expect that he will hit the ground not just running, but at a sprint. The Republicans would be wise to get with his program and be perceived by the public as contributing to the solutions, rather than being obstructionist.

How the dictatorship turns

Looks like Putin may be returning the Kremlin in the not too distant future. Coupled with Medvedev decision’s to deploy missiles near Poland, it is easy to see that the Russians are determined to throw their weight around. I think they are going to be very surprised with Obama’s resolve, and the Russians are no doubt trying to test that.

Posted in Barack Obama, Joe Lieberman, Joe the Plumber, Rahm Emanuel, Republican Party, Robert Gibbs, Russia, Slants, Vladimir Putin. Tags: , , , , . No Comments »

Remember, Remember the Fifth of November

November 5, 2008 — Rick

I was planning to later offer up some homage to the Fifth of November, as it is one of my favorite days, thanks to the movie V for Vendetta and the story of Guy Fawkes. And given the events of last night, something special is merited today.

But then something wonderful happened… someone named Tyler (still trying to get the last name) offered this verse in honor of the day, and the events. I am extremely grateful.

v

If you have seen the movie, you know the verse:

Remember, remember, the fifth of November
The Gunpowder Treason and plot
I know of no reason
Why the Gunpowder Treason
Should ever be forgot…

Here is Tyler’s wonderful addition:

Now this day is the 5th of november,
and look at what we have got.
for this day we will always remember,
the change for america was fought.
on this 5th of november in 2008,
the white house is no longer set to one race.
obama is in and bush is out,
so everyone gather and give a big shout,
because on this 5th of november
we will always remember,
that change is forever.

Perhaps it’s just because I am still extremely emotional over last night, but this is stirring to me, and I wanted to share it with others. Thank you, Tyler.

Posted in 2008 Presidential Race, November 5. Tags: , . No Comments »

Wahl says it all

November 5, 2008 — Rick

A very nicely done cartoon by Andrew Wahl. And yes, I just ordered my signed copy here.

yeswedid

Posted in 2008 Presidential Race, Andrew Wahl, Barack Obama, Cartoons. Tags: , , , . No Comments »

Winners and Losers from Election Night

November 5, 2008 — Rick

Here are some of the various winners and losers from last night, in no particular order.

Winner: Barack Obama

He defied conventional wisdom on how to run a political campaign. He relied on the internet and small donors, He found a message and stuck with it. And he survived Hillary Clinton and then the Republican hate and slime machine to make history in America. Barack is today’s “Citizen of the Day.”

Winner: The American People

Whether or not you voted for Barack Obama, he will be your President, and he will improve this nation dramatically by governing (not ruling) toward the center. American simply could not take four more years of the failed policies and divisiveness of the Bush Administration, John McCain, and the Republican Party.

Loser: The Republican Party

The Republican Party has been decimated, and the American people have soundly rejected a failed Bush Administration. The Republicans are now reeling. Their return to prominence will only take place if they are able to move their party back to the center, abandoning the right wing conservative base that has the cause of such bitterness and hate in our nation.

Here’s the reaction I expect the Republican kool-aid drinkers had last night as they prepared to celebrate their new Bush… I mean, new Maverick:

God, I love “Blazing Saddles.”

Loser: George W. Bush

We already knew that Bush is a failed President, but tonight the American people confirmed it. Making it even better were the hundreds of college students who showed up at the White House last night ready to help Dubya pack. It is time for Mr. Bush to go.

Winner: Earth

Finally we will have a President concerned with the welfare of our planet. Look for American leadership in moving forward international initiatives that will improve the quality of our air and water, that will protect and hopefully (eventually) restore our ice caps, and that will protect endangered species.

Loser: Gay Rights

Two separate ballot initiatives have banned gay marriages, while another prohibits unmarried partners from adopting children.

Winners: Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi

There are no excuses now, folks. A Democratic President. Significant majorities in both the House and the Senate. Get it done.

Loser: Elizabeth Dole

That’s what you get for running that kind of ad. Enjoy retirement.

Winner: The U.S. Military

Mark my words, this President will end our occupation in Iraq, will resolve the conflict (over time) in Afghanistan. And Mr. Obama will take care of our troops, both in the equipment and training that they receive and with the care we will provide them at home.

Loser: The State of Alaska

First their beloved Sarah Palin was soundly rejected. Then these idiots went and re-elected Ted Stevens to his Senate seat last night. Can we require that an entire state get therapy? Does anyone realize that this man is now a CONVICTED FELON? Oh wait, that seems to be badge of honor among his ilk.

Winner: Bi-partisanship

Although the Democrats don’t truly need to be bi-partisan, Obama will insist on it. Look for his Cabinet to be a diverse collection of people. Personally, I hope that Colin Powell and Chuck Hagel both find places in the new administration.

Loser: Al Qaeda

By forging better relations with both friends and adversaries alike, the United States will create an environment where terrorism will have a harder time organizing itself. With Obama’s determination to end the conflict in Iraq and focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan, the number of holes in which Osama bin Laden can hide will diminish.

Winner: Chicago

America’s “second city” just became the home to America’s President. No doubt the city will be an important part of the Obama administration.

Loser: Ralph Nader

What a moron. For as brilliant a man as Nader is, he just couldn’t resist making a stupid comment on Fixed Noise last night, suggesting that Obama is an “Uncle Tom” for corporations. You know what, Ralph? There were plenty of ways to make your point. Using a racially charged term to do so was downright ignorant. You get a “Moron of the Moment” award.

Winner: Saturday Night Live

“I can see Russia from my house.” Any questions?

Loser: The Radical “Christian” Right

Add to this bigots and racists. Hate and fear-mongering remains a part of the fabric of our society, but last night hope and equality prevailed. Narrow minded people now occupy the narrow place in society that they deserve.

Winners: My Children

This is all about them, after all. And I am so proud that my children will grow up in a society where people are created equal, and where anyone truly grow up to be President of the United States of America. I never thought I would see this in my lifetime, but I feel blessed to have witnessed this.

There are many more, but these are the ones that come immediately to my sleep-deprived mind. No doubt I will have plenty more to add later.

Posted in 2008 Presidential Race, Afghanistan, Barack Obama, Citizen of the Day, Democratic Party, Gay Rights, George W. Bush, Iraq, John McCain, Moron of the Moment, Personal, Ralph Nader, Republican Party, Sarah Palin, al Qaeda. Tags: , , , , , , , . No Comments »

One Great Victory

November 5, 2008 — Rick
President-Elect Barack Obama

President-Elect Barack Obama

Here is what is being said tonight:

From Politico: Audacity Wins

Once upon a time, the thought of Barack Obama becoming president was downright audacious.

In the early days of his campaign, Obama had to persuade people that casting a vote for him was not a waste of time, a sad joke or a hopeless cause.

When I interviewed him just a few days before he announced for the presidency in February 2007, I asked him if he was on some kind of “crusade.”

He sat up in the chair where he had been sitting with his chin cupped in his left hand, his arm resting on the arm of the chair, and even dropped a “g” to make his point more forceful.

“No, no, no,” he said. “If I am runnin’ for president, it is not symbolic. It’s to win. But it’s also to transform the country.”

Barack Obama won Tuesday night. The transformation of the country we’ll see about.

But Obama’s victory certainly says a great deal about how the right person with the right message at the right time can move very far and very fast in this country, no matter what the barriers.

Full story here…

MSNBC: Barack Obama elected 44th president

By Alex Johnson
Reporter
msnbc.com

Barack Obama, a 47-year-old first-term senator from Illinois, shattered more than 200 years of history Tuesday night by winning election as the first African-American president of the United States.

A crowd of 125,000 people jammed Grant Park in Chicago, where Obama addressed the nation for the first time as its president-elect at midnight ET. Hundreds of thousands more — Mayor Richard Daley said he would not be surprised if a million Chicagoans jammed the streets — watched on a large television screen outside the park.

“If there is anyone out there who doubts that America is a place where anything is possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer,” Obama declared.

Full story here…

CNN: Obama: ‘This is your victory’

(CNN) — Barack Obama told supporters that “change has come to America” as he claimed victory in a historic presidential election.

“The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America — I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you — we as a people will get there,” Obama said in Chicago, Illinois, before an estimated crowd of 125,000 people.

With Obama’s projected win, he will become the first African-American to win the White House.

Obama had an overwhelming victory over Sen. John McCain, who pledged Tuesday night to help Obama lead.

Full story here…

BBC: Obama wins historic US election

Democratic Senator Barack Obama has been elected the first black president of the United States.

“It’s been a long time coming, but tonight… change has come to America,” the president-elect told a jubilant crowd at a park in Chicago.

His rival John McCain accepted defeat, saying “I deeply admire and commend” Mr Obama. He called on his supporters to lend the next president their goodwill.

The BBC’s Justin Webb said the result would have a profound impact on the US.

“On every level America will be changed by this result… [it] will never be the same,” he said.

Mr Obama appeared with his family, and his running mate Joe Biden, before a crowd of tens of thousands in Grant Park, Chicago.

“If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer,” he said.

Full story here…

Al Jazeera: Obama sweeps to US presidency

Barack Obama has become the first African-American president of the United States after a decisive victory saw him take the key battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

In his victory speech at Chicago’s Grant Park late on Tuesday, Obama told tens of thousands of supporters that “change has come to America”.

“If there’s anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, tonight is your answer,” he said.

“The road ahead will be long … we may not get there in one year or even in one term but America, I have never been as hopeful as I am tonight that we will get there. We as a people will get there.

But Obama also struck a cautionary note, saying there was still much to be done.

“Even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime - two wars, a planet in peril [and] the worst financial crisis in a century,’ he said.

He commended John McCain, the Republican candidate, for his hard-fought campaign and said he wanted to work with him in the future

McCain had conceded defeat in a telephone conversation with Obama late on Tuesday.

Al Jazeera’s Rob Reynolds, reporting from Chicago, said: “It is over fairly early, not like the past two elections. This one was a more decisive victory.

“It is truly a national victory with a national mandate for change.

Full story here…

Truthdig: Morning Again in America

By Robert Scheer

It’s time to gush! Later for the analysis of all the hard choices faced by our next president, Barack Obama, but for now, let’s just thrill, unabashedly, to the sound of those words. Heck, both he and we deserve a honeymoon, at least for a few paragraphs of this column.

It is “Morning Again in America,” to reclaim and revise the slogan from the 1984 campaign of President Ronald Reagan, only this time the promise of an American renewal is in the hands of a moderate post-Cold War leader who embraces, rather than denies, the diversity and complexity of the modern world. It is difficult to imagine Obama ever asserting the arrogant jingoism that has come to mark Republican stewardship of this nation in the eyes of the world.

How refreshing for Americans to have elected a leader who was among the first to reject the imperial hubris that led this nation to invade Iraq over the objection of most of our allies. A leader who had the courage in the midst of a hotly contested primary election campaign to refuse to play the inveterate hawk in order to qualify as commander in chief, and instead had the audacity to advocate efforts at dialogue even with those we despise. The dead hand of Joe Lieberman has been lifted from the party that he betrayed. It is hoped it is also the end of the road for the neoconservatives who had rallied around John McCain as their last best hope for establishing a Pax Americana.

Full story here…

Posted in 2008 Presidential Race, Barack Obama. Tags: , . 2 Comments »

President-Elect Barack Obama

November 4, 2008 — Rick

proudofmycountry1

Posted in 2008 Presidential Race, Barack Obama. Tags: , . No Comments »

2008 ELECTION NIGHT THREAD

November 4, 2008 — Rick

Welcome to the 2008 Election Night thread.

Here’s how it works:

The first section of this thread will be a chart of the evening, in order of when the polls close in each state. The second section will be observations that I make throughout the course of the evening. Note that poll closing times are in Eastern time (EDT) and the times of my posts are in Central Time (CDT).

As I have previously noted, comments are welcome throughout the course of the evening. All comments will be posted, as long as they are not vulgar and as long as they are relevant.

Since this is going to be my only post today until the election is resolved tonight, here are some links to news articles that I otherwise might have written about today:

CNN: Obama’s grandmother dies after battle with cancer (note: truly sad; it would have been wonderful for her to live to see tonight’s election)
CNN: A historic election, no matter the outcome
MSNBC: Sea change in politics after race for president
CNN: Democrats aim for powerful majority in Senate
Truthdig: Obama’s First Win: Dixville Notch, NH
Truthdig: A New Pride in our Country (Eugene Robinson)
CNN: Scientists hope to clone extinct species (note: not a political article, but are we headed towards Jurassic Park?)
CNN: Palin didn’t violate ethics law, 2nd probe finds (note: Wow. Really? She was cleared by a partisan panel that she appointed? What a surprise.)
Huff Po: The 2008 Election Winner? The Internet
MSNBC: And the effort to disenfranchise voters in Virginia and Pennsylvania begins…

PART ONE: ELECTION RETURNS

2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

RUNNING TALLY OF ELECTORAL VOTES:

Barack Obama - 364

John McCain - 174

7:00 pm

Georgia (15) - Winner - McCain
Indiana (11) - Winner - Obama
Kentucky (8) - Winner - McCain
South Carolina (8) - Winner - McCain
Vermont (3) - Winner - Obama
Virginia (13) - Winner - Obama

7:30 pm

Ohio (20) - Winner - Obama
North Carolina (15) - Winner - Obama
West Virginia (5) - Winner - McCain

8:00 pm

Alabama (9) - Winner - McCain
Connecticut (7) - Winner - Obama
Delaware (3) - Winner - Obama
Florida (27) - Winner - Obama
Illinois (21) - Winner - Obama

Maine (4) - Winner - Obama
Maryland (10) - Winner - Obama
Massachusetts (12) - Winner - Obama
Mississippi (6) - Winner - McCain
Missouri (11) - Winner - McCain
New Hampshire (4) - Winner - Obama
New Jersey (15) - Winner - Obama
Oklahoma (7) - Winner - McCain
Pennsylvania (21) - Winner - Obama
Tennessee (11) - Winner - McCain
District of Columbia (3) - Winner - Obama

8:30 pm

Arkansas (6) - Winner - McCain

9:00 pm

Arizona (10) - Winner - McCain
Colorado (9) - Winner - Obama
Kansas (6) - Winner - McCain
Louisiana (9) - Winner - McCain
Michigan (17) - Winner - Obama
Minnesota (10) - Winner - Obama
Nebraska (5) - Winner - McCain
New Mexico (5) - Winner - Obama
New York (31) - Winner - Obama
Rhode Island (4) - Winner - Obama
South Dakota (3) - Winner - McCain
Texas (34) - Winner - McCain
Wisconsin (10) - Winner - Obama
Wyoming (3) - Winner - McCain

10:00 pm

Iowa (7) - Winner - Obama
Montana (3) - Winner - McCain
Nevada (5) - Winner - Obama
Utah (5) - Winner - McCain

11:00 pm

California (55) - Winner - Obama
Hawaii (4) - Winner - Obama
Idaho (4) - Winner - McCain
North Dakota (3) - Winner - McCain
Oregon (7) - Winner - Obama
Washington (11) - Winner - Obama

1:00 am

Alaska (3) - Winner - McCain

PART TWO: EVENING COMMENTARY

Comments coming beginning at 6:00 pm CST on November 4, 2008

5:55 pm CDT - Online and ready to go… friends coming over to enjoy some pizza, beer and the election returns. Here is hoping that America makes the right decision tonight and elects Barack Obama to the presidency. Your comments are welcome. As I said earlier, they will all be published as long as they are civil and relevant.

6:02 pm CDT- Kentucky called for McCain. Vermont called for Obama. No surprises. Virginia Senate seat called for Mark Warner (D); Lindsay Graham (R) wins in South Carolina. Again, no surprises.

6:37 pm CDT - Jay Rockefeller (D) retains seat in West Virginia.

6:47 pm CDT - South Carolina called for John McCain.

7:02 pm CDT - This is a lot earlier than I expected, but it looks like the election just ended, at least in realistic terms for McCain. The McCain strategy to carry Pennsylvania has crashed. Obama is the projected winner in Pennsylvania, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Maine, Delaware, and the District of Columbia. McCain is the winner in Tennessee and Oklahoma.

7:47 pm CDT Georgia and Alabama called for McCain.

8:02 pm CDT - Minnesota, Rhode Island, New York, Michigan and Wisconsin to Barack Obama. John McCain gets Wyoming.

8:07 pm CDT - Arkansas to McCain.

8:16 pm CDT - McCain wins Kansas.

8:26 pm CDT - Ohio to Obama. This is huge.

8:31 pm CDT - New Mexico to Obama. North Dakota to McCain. Stick a fork in McCain.

8:38 pm CDT - McConnell holds on to his Senate seat. McCain gets West Virginia.

9:01 pm CDT - Iowa to Obama and Utah to McCain.

9:09 pm CDT - Mississippi and Texas go to McCain. Duh.

9:34 pm CDT - Louisiana to McCain.

9:38 pm CDT - South Dakota to McCain.

9:44 pm CDT - Nebraska to John McCain.

10:02 pm CDT - Barack Obama has been elected the 44th President of the United States of America. California, Washington and Oregon called for Obama.

10:08 pm CDT - Hawaii and Virginia to Obama

10:14 pm CDT - Colorado to Obama.

10:16 pm CDT - Florida to Barack Obama. I am so proud of this nation right now.

10:18 pm CDT - McCain concedes defeat. It was a classy speech by McCain, even if not given in front of classy supporters, who insisted on booing Obama’s name. But McCain was clear in a bipartisan message of support for President-Elect Obama.

10:31 pm CDT - Arizona and Idaho to McCain.

10:40 pm CDT - Nevada to Obama.

10:57 pm CDT - President-Elect Barack Obama delivers a powerful victory speech in Grant Park, Chicago.

obama_family

12:40 am CDT - Alaska to McCain.

1:25 am CDT - Indiana is called for Obama.

Off to bed… I will follow up with additional results in the morning. We still have a few states outstanding, and I am reading that Georgia may have been called for McCain too early. We’ll see if anything changes.

7:32 am CDT - North Carolina and Missouri are still to be decided, though it appears as though Obama won the former. Late last night, Montana went to McCain.

9:55 am CDT - I am calling North Carolina for Obama and Missouri for McCain. They hold leads respectively in these states and there is only a small chance that the total will be affected, though Missouri is exceptionally close. If this holds, I will have nailed the electoral college prediction on the nose, 364-174. The only errors on my map were Indiana and Missouri, which flipped out evenly at 11 electoral votes. Not bad for an amateur.

FINAL TALLIES WILL FOLLOW AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

Final Score: Barack Obama electoral votes, John McCain electoral votes

Popular Vote: Barack Obama , John McCain [ total votes cast]

Final Senate Tally: Democrats , Republicans , Independents 2

Final House Tally: Democrats , Republicans

Posted in 2008 Presidential Race, Barack Obama, John McCain. Tags: , , , . No Comments »

How Election Night will unfold (re-post)

November 3, 2008 — Rick

Here is a re-post of what I put up the other night - my final election predictions, which remain untouched since I originally put them up. Just a reminder that I will be blogging throughout the election returns tomorrow night and welcome your commentary.

I have decided to post this early, in time for the weekend, and knowing that the common wisdom in politics is that polls conducted in the very final days mean almost nothing. Most pundits stop the Friday or Saturday before the election, and it is my belief that most people in this country have made up their minds on who they are casting their vote for on November 4th.

Thus, what follows is my take on what will unfold Tuesday night. It is my best guess, but is just that… a guess. I hold no special insight. This is simply an attempt to put my own bias aside (as much as possible), look at the numbers, consider the state of each campaign, and project who will win the White House.

One caveat in this is that it assumes a fair election. There are still many, many concerns about Ohio’s process, and some concerns about Colorado and New Mexico as well. It is good that over twenty-three million people have already cast their votes; hopefully this will make Election Day a bit less chaotic. Lines will still be long, and challenges will take place, but many who might have been disenfranchised by waiting until Tuesday have already had the opportunity to get through the process in order to be able to cast a ballot.

And now, with no further introduction, is how I think Tuesday night will unfold.

7:00 pm EDT - Polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

The early states in the election will help McCain get the evening off to a good start. It will be a short-lived lead.

Georgia (15 EV) - While Obama has made inroads here, he is not likely to win this state. Look for Georgia to be called early for McCain. (Score: McCain 15, Obama 0)

Indiana (11 EV) - Obama has made a great play for this traditionally red state, and the polls have been back and forth. The later in the night this one is called, the better for Obama. None the less, while Obama has made great strides in his neighbor state, I just don’t get the sense that there is enough support to send this state into his column. I look for a late call for McCain here. (Score: McCain 26, Obama 0)

Kentucky (8 EV) - This state will not be close. Look for an early call for McCain. (Score: McCain 34, Obama 0)

South Carolina (8 EV) - Even with a motivated black base, this is an easy and early call for McCain. (Score: McCain 42, Obama 0)

Vermont (3 EV) - This is a solidly blue state, and will be an easy and early call for Obama. (Score: McCain, 42, Obama 3)

Virginia (13 EV) - This is one of the bellweather states that will help decide this election. Obama has been consistently up, and by a fair margin. The NOVA vote, coupled with a strong ground game to get out the black vote, will propel Obama to victory here, but don’t expect the call until a couple of hours after the polls close. (Score: McCain 42, Obama 16)

7:30 pm EDT - Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia

Two key battleground states close here, but will likely not be declared for several hours. North Carolina and Ohio should poise themselves to launch Barack Obama to the presidency.

North Carolina (15 EV) - This is a solidly GOP state that would seem to be gravy for the Obama campaign.The polls here have shown small but steady leads by Obama, and the Senate race there has been heated as well. Look for Obama to pull out a narrow win here, but this won’t be declared until at least 10:30 EDT. When the state does get called for Obama, the rout will likely be on. (Score: McCain 42, Obama 31)

Ohio (20 EV) - If there are voting problems that surface on this night, it will likely again be in Ohio. There are already disputes unfolding there, and both sides have dispatched plenty of attorneys to duke it out. Obama has been showing steady leads here, and by fairly high single digits. Obama is at or near 50% in several polls. Like North Carolina this will be a late call, but likely even later… perhaps around 11:30 EDT. Look for a late three point win by Obama. (Score: Obama 51, McCain 42)

West Virginia (5 EV) - Obama has made a game of it here, forcing McCain and Palin to spend vital resources to retain this state. Look for a 5 point McCain victory here. (Score: Obama 51, McCain 47)

8:00 pm EDT - Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee

If you are a liberal or a progressive, over the next hour or two would be a good time to tune into Fixed Noise, just to see the smug grin disappear off of Sean Hannity and Bill O’Rielly’s faces. These states will collectively and effectively put Obama up to stay and it will become clear that the election is headed Obama’s way.

Alabama (9 EV) - Early and easy call for McCain. (Score: McCain 56, Obama 51)

Connecticut (7 EV) - Early and easy call for Obama. (Score: Obama 58, McCain 56)

Delaware (3 EV) - Easy win for Obama here as well. (Score: Obama 61, McCain 56)

District of Columbia (3 EV) - Easiest win of the night for Obama. (Score: Obama 64, McCain 56)

Florida (27 EV) - In recent elections this has been a key swing state. While Florida may not carry the same singular importance this year, this will be a tight battle. Look for this result to come in late, probably around 11:30 pm EDT. Look for a three to four point Obama win in the Sunshine State. (Score: Obama 91, McCain 56)

Illinois (21 EV) - Unlike Arizona, which is now competitive, Obama will easily carry his home state. (Score: Obama 112, McCain 56)

Maine (4 EV) - McCain was hoping to peel off one of the state’s electoral votes; it won’t happen. (Score: Obama 116, McCain 56)

Maryland (10 EV) - This will be an early and decisive win for Obama. (Score: Obama 126, McCain 56)

Massachusetts (12 EV) - The reliable blue state stays reliable. (Score: Obama 138, McCain 56)

Mississippi (6 EV) - While the margin of victory won’t be what it is in other southern states, McCain will carry Mississippi by about nine or ten points. (Score: Obama 138, McCain 62)

Missouri (11 EV) - This state is truly up for grabs and McCain must have it to have any chance at all in the election. The polling uis incredibly close here, and this state is truly a guess. Look for Obama to eke out a two point victory that won’t be called until at least 11:00 pm EDT, and may well be later. (Score: Obama 149, McCain 62)

New Hampshire (4 EV) - John McCain helped build his “maverick” label in this state, but it won’t help him this evening as Obama cruises to a relatively easy win. (Score: Obama 153, McCain 62)

New Jersey (15 EV) - Once upon a time, McCain dreamed of pulling off an upset in the Garden State, but this will be an easy Obama win. (Score: Obama 168, McCain 62)

Oklahoma (7 EV) - This is an easy win for McCain. (Score: Obama 168, McCain 69)

Pennsylvania (21 EV) - McCain’s hopes here were always a long shot, and it won’t pay off. Obama will win by somewhere around seven points here, though Republican Congressional candidates may fare well here because of the late Republican push. (Score: Obama 189, McCain 69)

Tennessee (11 EV) - This state should be an easy double digit win for McCain. (Score: 189, McCain 80)

8:30 pm EDT - Polls close in Arkansas

Arkansas (6 EV) - This is an easy 9 or 10 point win for McCain. (Score: Obama 189, McCain 86)

9:00 pm EDT - Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

This will ultimately be the group of states that likely seals the deal for Barack Obama, though this will not likely be known for another sixty to ninety minutes. McCain gets many of his votes in this group from solidly Republican states.

Arizona (10 EV) - Once unthinkable, the Obama campaign has made this state competitive. But can it pull of the upset? I don’t think so, but the spread will only be about four or five points in McCain’s favor. (Score: Obama 189, McCain 96)

Colorado (9 EV) - Many feel that Colorado will decide the election. I think that is an overstatement, but believe that Colorado reflects very well the changing electoral demographics. Once a reliably Republican state, look for Obama to carry Colorado by five points. (Score: Obama 198, McCain 96)

Kansas (6 EV) - This reliably red state stays red. (Score: Obama 198, McCain 102)

Louisiana (9 EV) - This state carries the possibility of an upset, with a very motivated black base. But that base is smaller than it was prior to Katrina, and I expect a nine or ten point McCain win here. (Score: Obama 198, McCain 111)

Michigan (17 EV) - McCain long ago threw in the towel here, which will prove to be an unwise move. Obama will win by double digits here. (Score: Obama 215, McCain 111)

Minnesota (10 EV) - This is another state where McCain is hoping to pull off an upset. While this one will be closer than some polls suggest, we are still looking at a six or seven point win for Obama. (Score: Obama 225, McCain 111)

Nebraska (5 EV) - McCain will easily sweep the electoral votes in this state. (Score: Obama 225, McCain 116)

New Mexico (5 EV) - This swing state will swing Obama’s way by about eight points. (score: Obama 230, McCain 116)

New York (31 EV) - An early and easy call for Obama (Score: Obama 261, McCain 116)

North Dakota (3 EV) - Obama has somehow been able to make this state competitive and is tied going into the final weekend, but McCain will escape this state with a victory of just a few thousand votes. (Score: Obama 261, McCain 119)

Rhode Island (4 EV) - An easy win for Obama. (Score: Obama 265, McCain 119)

South Dakota (3 EV) - Not as close as North Dakota; McCain wins here by at least seven points. (Score: Obama 265, McCain 122)

Texas (34 EV) - McCain’s biggest electoral prize, and a double digit win. (Score: Obama 265, McCain 156)

Wisconsin (10 EV) - This state should be an easy win for Obama. (Score: Obama 275, McCain 156)

Wyoming (3 EV) - Like the home of Dick Cheney would even consider voting Democratic… easy McCain win. (Score: Obama 275, McCain 159)

10:00 pm EDT - Polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah

By this point, the returns should be coming in enough to make it clear that Obama is on the path to victory. The media will be holding off on a final declaration, but the focus will now begin to shift to the Senate numbers.

Iowa (7 EV) - At one time competitive, Iowa will be a high single digit win for Obama. (Score: Obama 282, McCain 159)

Montana (3 EV) - Another state where Obama has been able to make it competitive, but I would be very surprised by an Obama win. Look for McCain to win by about six points. (Score: Obama 282, McCain 162)

Nevada (5 EV) - A small battleground state that has been fiercely competitive. Obama’s steady leads here will hold true on Election Day and Obama will carry the state. (Score: Obama 287, McCain 162)

Utah (5 EV) - Early and very easy call for McCain. (Score: Obama 287, McCain 167)

11:00 pm EDT - Polls close in California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington

As California comes in and the earlier states begin to get resolved, it is now becoming certain that Obama has been elected the 44th President of the United States. I expect the election to be called for Obama by at least two stations/sites by 11:47 EDT.

California (55 EV) - Look for a twenty point win for Obama here. (Score: Obama 342, McCain 167)

Hawaii (4 EV) - An easy Obama win in his birth state. (Score: Obama 346, McCain 167)

Idaho (4 EV) - McCain cruises to victory here. (Score: Obama 346, McCain 171)

Oregon (7 EV) - A double digit win for Obama. (Score: Obama 353, McCain 171)

Washington (11 EV) - Look for Obama to win by ten or more here. (Score: 364, McCain 171)

1:00 am EDT - Polls close in Alaska

Alaska (3 EV) - Well, at least Sarah Palin was good for something; an easy McCain win here. (Score: Obama 364, McCain 174)

Final Score: Barack Obama 364 electoral votes, John McCain 174 electoral votes

Popular Vote Prediction: Barack Obama 67,500,000 (52.1%), John McCain 60,000,000 (46.3%) [129,500,000 total votes cast]

Final Senate Projection: Democrats 56, Republicans 42, Independents 2

Final House Projection: Democrats 250, Republicans 185

Final thoughts: The Republican Party will likely devolve into a civil war after this election. The best they will be able to muster is to squabble with Democrats and the media as to whether or not 364 electoral votes is considered a “landslide.” The Democrats, now blessed (or cursed) with single party rule, will be under the gun to get their collective act together and improve the economy, as well as to address the mess in Iraq and the ongoing struggle in Afghanistan. I do believe that Barack Obama’s style of leadership will be consistent with what we have seen in the campaign. He will be thoughtful, will listen to both sides, but will fight for what he believes in most. While Obama does not represent the type of progressive agenda I hope for, and while I believe he will generally try to rule from the “center”, he can begin the process of moving the center back away from the right. Whether or not you support Mr. Obama, the fact is that he will drastically improve our nation over the course of the next four years, and should place himself in a solid place to be re-elected in 2012.

Posted in 2008 Presidential Race, Barack Obama, John McCain, Predictions, blog. Tags: , , . 2 Comments »

Quick Slants for November 3, 2008

November 3, 2008 — Rick

One last set of slants before the election.

A Momo for Hatch

Orrin Hatch isn’t just a moron; he is an outright ass. Today he claimed that the U.S. “lose a lot of stature throughout the world” if Barack Obama is elected President.

I don’t know what planet this asshat is living on if he thinks that the U.S. enjoys a lot of “stature” in the world right now. Two things… Iraq and torture, have pretty much done in our international reputation. And now Hatch wants us to elect a guy who was beating the war drums early and often, as well as a guy who rolled over to the administration on the issue of torture.

Perhaps he should leave Washington, DC and Utah a little more often.

The Breeder’s Momo

This one is really priceless. I had a suspicion that something was up with the replaced juror in the Ted Stevens case. the first reports that I heard were that she was disruptive and disrespectful, and ignored the judge’s directions during deliberations. Then then next thing I knew, she was replaced because her father had died. Too strange.

Turns out it was too strange. Turns out that the juror, Marian Hinnant, lied to the judge about her father’s death so that she could fly to California to attend the Breeder’s Cup.

Wow. Just wow.

Sarah strikes again

Ever the empathic veep candidate, Sarah palin assured an African-American today that she understood racial prejudice because her husband is part native Alaskan. Are you kidding me? Does she really want to make that comparison? Chalk this up as yet one more example of why she makes a better punchline than vice presidential candidate.

See her comment here.

Intrade Odds

Intrade got every single state right in the 2004 election, showing that gamblers are at least as accurate as polls. This was also the case on another major futures site.

So how do they have this election called? Obama 364, McCain 174. If that number seems familiar, it’s because that is exactly what I called a few days ago. And no, I had not consulted Intrade.

Not working

Despite all of the Republican attacks on Obama related to William Ayers and Jeremiah Wright, it turns out that Obama is actually widening his lead in the polls. I find it highly, highly unlikely that this race is tightening.

Go Away, Joe

Enough of this idiot Joe the Plumber (Joe Wurzelbacher) who now sounds like any of the Fixed Noise pundits by parroting the same crap that we have heard for the past two months. Now Mr. Wurzelbacher has questioned Obama’s loyalty to the United States.

And I question yours, Mr. Wurzelbacher. Exactly what have you ever done to contribute to the good of this nation? Who the hell are you to be able to espouse such ignorance and expect to be taken seriously? Effective tomorrow, your fifteen minutes have expired, Mr. Wurzelbacher, but you can live on as a Golden Momo recipient.

A final pre-election commentary

No matter what your political persuasion, watch this clip and ask yourself whether or not we would take Barack Obama seriously as a candidate if he made all of the same blunders that John McCain has. So exactly why is anyone taking Mr. McCain seriously?

So here we go… tomorrow is the most important moment in American history in the past forty years. How we choose tomorrow will say a great deal about us as a nation.

Posted in 2008 Presidential Race, Barack Obama, Intolerance, Joe the Plumber, John McCain, Moron of the Moment, Orrin Hatch, Polling, Sarah Palin, Slants. Tags: , , , , , , , . 3 Comments »

Bill Maher’s election recap

November 3, 2008 — Rick

Posted in 2008 Presidential Race, Bill Maher. Tags: , , . No Comments »
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