The New England Patriots wasted no time venturing into the crop of 2009 free agents, signing RB Fred Taylor (Jaguars) and TE Chris Baker (Jets). In a surprising move to many fans, LB Mike Vrabel was traded to Scott Pioli and the Kansas City Chiefs for an undisclosed draft pick. Other Patriot players were also on the move. Longtime long snapper Loni Paxton signed with Josh McDaniels and the Denver Broncos, as did WR Jabar Gaffney.
As free agency gets underway in earnest, let’s take a quick glance at the current Patriots’ roster, with some early thoughts on what direction the Patriots might go in over the coming weeks. And yes, we know that as soon as this is published, the Patriots will go out and make moves that prove my predictions wrong.
Let’s start with the offense.
Quarterback
Tom Brady, the face of the franchise, is set to return for the 2009 season and by all accounts (namely his own) will be completely recovered from the injury he suffered in Week One of the 2008 season, as well as from the infection that settled in to Brady’s knee following the surgery. Brady is the clear starter in New England if he is healthy.
What to do about Matt Cassell? The adept backup was franchised earlier this month, leading to speculation that this was a set-up for a trade. And it may well be. It is also possible that the Patriots will work out a longer term deal with Cassel and that a starter in waiting will be established akin to the Montana-Young tandem the San Francisco 49ers once enjoyed.
The decision about Cassel might well be influenced by how the Patriots feel about third string quarterback Kevin O’Connell. If O’Connell is perceived to be ready to serve as an effective backup to Brady, as Cassel did in 2008, then we can expect to see Cassell on the move, especially with the cap dollars that Cassel will command.
My best guess? Look for the Patriots to move Cassell before the April draft.
NOTE: In the time it took to complete and publish this article, the Patriots traded Cassel away to the Kansas City Chiefs for a second round draft pick. While that may seem like a steal for the Chiefs (and it may well be), it bodes very well for the Patriots’ upcoming draft.
Running Back
Has Laurence Maroney seen his final days as a Patriot? While Maroney is unquestionably talented, he has proven to be extremely fragile and has not yet lived up to a portion of his potential. The idea that he will ever be a primary back carrying the ball twenty timeas a game seems far-fetched, at least to Patriot fans. With the addition of Fred Taylor, the Pats’ backfield (without Maroney) now includes Taylor, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. LaMont Jordan is an unrestricted free agent and will likely land elsewhere. If this group is the same group that starts the season, look for Morris and Taylor to split time, with Faulk as the third down back.
I don’t expect more resources to be poured into this position, unless the Pats are able to grab a back that they may covet in the draft.
Fullback
Dependable Heath Evans is an unrestricted free agent. Expect Evans back at a home team price.
Wide Receiver
Randy Moss and Wes Welker serve as one of the best 1-2 receiving combinations in the league. Finding consistent receivers beyond the two is the quest for the 2009 Patriots. Now that Jabar Gaffney has signed with the Broncos and Kelley Washington has been released, the remaining receivers include Matthew Slater, Sam Aiken, and Maurice Price. Rest assured that this will not be the opening day crop of receivers. Quality free agent possibilities include Michael Jenkins (Falcons), Drew Carter (Raiders), Michael Clayton (Bucs), Ronald Curry (Raiders), Devery Henderson (Saints), Brandon Jones (Titans), Nate Washington (Steelers), and Koren Robinson (Seahawks). The Pats are also likely to look for a wide receiver somewhere in the middle rounds of the draft.
Tight Ends
The addition of Chris Baker solidifies the position for the Patriots, who now have Baker, Ben Watson, David Thomas, and Brad Listorti. The Patriots may well keep Baker, Watson and Thomas, but don’t rule out the possibility that either Watson or Thomas could be on the move if the Pats aren’t satisfied with the production (22 receptions for Watson and 9 receptions for Thomas).
Offensive Line
Dan Koppen and Ryan Wendell are the two centers currently on the Pats’ roster. Koppen is a solid center with six years of experience, as well as another one of those “finds” in the fifth round. Wendell was signed last May and is seeking a shot at the playing roster.
At the guard slots, the Patriots once again line up Logan Mankins and Stephen Neal, with Billy Gates re-signed and in reserve. Russ Hochstein, who can play both guard and center, is an unrestricted free agent that the Pats may lock up again very soon. Neal is hoped to be fully healthy entering the season, having only started nine games (appearing in 11) in 2008. When healthy, Mankins and Neal are among the games’ elite at guard. Barry Stokes is still listed, but is also an unrestricted free agent and unlikely to return to Foxboro.
The starting tackle slots would seem to belong to Matt Light and Nick Kaczur. Ryan O’Callaghan is a good reserve, but hasn’t yet pushed Kaczur for the starting role. Wesley Britt is a restricted free agent who will likely make the roster again this season. Dan Connolly is a practice squad player hoping to make a run at the roster.
Ultimately, the Patriots would be best served by moving Light to the right side, as he has proven susceptible against the pass rush. This will require an addition, likely through the draft, and looks to be at least another year away.
Defensive Line
The only questions here are at tackle, where Mike Wright and Kenny Smith are unrestrcited free agents. Otherwise, Vince Wilfork will again be patrolling the inside, seeking to snuff out an opponent’s running attack. LeKevin Smith is a capable reserve. Titus Adams is still listed on the roster but is unlikely to make it to opening day. Bringing back Wright would seem a logical move for the Patriots.
At the ends, it’s the Richard Seymour and Ty Warren show, back for another repeat performance. Backing up is Jarvis Green, who would start for just about any other team in the league.
Linebackers
This group will no doubt undergo some significant changes in the near future with the trade of Mike Vrabel to the Kansas City Chiefs. With names like Junior Seau and Roosevelt Colvin still on the roster, it is easy to see why change is a-coming. And with such a talented crop of linebackers awaiting in the upcoming draft, the Patriots are likely to address this need with at least one and possibly two draft picks being spent at this position.
Tedy Bruschi and Jerod Mayo comprise the inside core. Bruschi is likely playing his last season and can both contribute as well as mentor the new players coming into the limebacking group. Mayo established that he is the future inside presence for the Patriots with a monster rookie year. Gary Guyton had an outstanding rookie season and is a very capable inside linebacker. Seau is still on the roster but it is questionable if he will return.
On the outside, Adalius Thomas is back from his injury and poised to claim his starting position. Shawn Crable is also back from the IR and looking to make the impact that the Patriots had hoped for when they drafted him. Tully Banta-Cain is back in a Patriots uni and happy to be there after a failed run in San Francisco. Banta-Cain fits the Patriots’ defensive scheme very well and will likely be seen as an important contributor this coming season. Colvin may compete for a spot, or may find a quick exit in the coming days.
Larry Izzo, the eternal special teams mad dog, now unfortunately connected to the Barry Bonds steroid case, is no doubt welcome back to New England as long as he wants to play and can contribute. Pierre Woods and Eric Alexander are both restricted free agents and may well find themselves staying with the Patriots, though Alexander may not make the roster this summer. Other players include Vince Redd who saw some playing time last season, Bo Ruud, Darrell Robertson and Angelo Craig. None of these players would seem to be in the mix for the opening day roster.
Cornerbacks
Do the Patriots lack talent at this position beyond Ellis Hobbs, or do they possess talent and this talent has been stunted by injuries? That is the question facing the Patriots with the onset of the new season. The interest in Leigh Bodden would suggest that the Patriots are well aware of the void created by Asante Samuel’s departure last year. Don’t be surprised to see the Patriots spend one of their second round picks at this position. In fact, be surprised if they don’t.
At present, it would seem that Hobbs and Jonathan Wilhite would be the starters if the roster remained “as is.” Terrence Wheatley showed some promise before a season-ending injury last year and will likely be in the mix. Deltha O’Neal and Lewis Sanders are both unrestricted free agents. Expect Sanders to be back given his ability to play safety as well, but think O’Neal will land somewhere else next season. Antwain Spann and Mike Richardson are both guys that can contribute.
Safeties
Brandon Meriweather seems poised to emerge for the Patriots as the career of Rodney Harrison draws to a close. Harrison is an unrestricted free agent, but it would be no surprise at all to see the Patriots bring him back for one final season. James Sanders and Tank Williams are both unrestricted free agents as well. Sanders would seem to have a lock on a starting position, while Williams is unlikely to ever make the field in a Patriots’ uniform. Ray Ventrone is a solid special teams contributor, while Mark Dillard rounds out the current roster. This is a position where the Patriots seem to be in serious need of some help, and it is very likely that the Pats will be adding to this group through both free agency and the draft.
Special Teams
Stephen Gostkowski has already established himself as one of the best kickers in the league, making his first Pro Bowl appearance at the end of last season. Chris Hanson is a capable punter who has underperformed and the Patriots signed Tom Malone to bring some competition. Loni Paxton has moved on to Denver, leaving the Patriots with an important void to fill at long snapper.
Top need to address:
- Inside Linebacker
- Outside Linebacker
- Cornerback
- Safety
- Wide Receiver
- Defensive Tackle
- Offensive Tackle
- Quarterback
- Long Snapper
